The story the series tells
Three years of OPM’s own numbers tell one clean story. Through 2023 and 2024 the system was getting healthier — inventory ground down from 25,227 toward OPM’s 13,000-case goal, and processing ran in the 47–65-day band.
Then the surge: from January 2025, the deferred-resignation wave and the September 30, 2025 retirement class more than quadrupled the queue, to a peak of 65,237 in February 2026.
Since March 2026 the drain has been real. Record throughput months pulled inventory down to 24,784 by July — the lowest in a year.
The counter-trend is the part the headline hides: while the count fell, the average wait rose — 60 days in March, 109 by July. Fast, digital, straightforward cases clear first; older, paper, complex cases finish last, and they set the average. A shrinking backlog and a lengthening wait are both true at once. That gap — between the published number and the felt wait — is the reason this page exists.