The story the series tells
Three years of OPM’s own numbers tell one clean story. Through 2023 and 2024 the system was getting healthier: inventory ground down from 25,227 toward OPM’s 13,000-case goal, and processing ran in the 47–65-day band.
Then the surge: from January 2025, the deferred-resignation wave and the September 30, 2025 retirement class more than quadrupled the queue, to a peak of 65,237 in February 2026.
Since March 2026 the drain has been real. Record throughput months pulled inventory down to 15,427 by August, the lowest since December 2024 and back inside the range the system ran in before the surge.
The counter-trend is the part the headline hid all spring: while the count fell, the average wait rose, 60 days in March to 109 by July. Fast, digital, straightforward cases clear first; older, paper, complex cases finish last, and they set the average. August is the first month since March that both fell, to 15,427 cases and 79 days. The split is why: digital cases dropped to 70 days while paper barely moved, 156 to 150. That gap, between the published number and the felt wait, is the reason this page exists.